Why TiVo will not work in China (and why Video IPOD might)

Fons from China Herald wrote a piece on why TiVo would never work in (mainland) China.

While I don't necessarily agree with his reasons WHY TiVo would not work in China, I do agree that it will not work. I believe the reason it wouldn't work is that many within the target audience already have "time-shift" machines: they're called computers. The 'net generation in China watches much of their video entertainment on the computer, spending much less time on TV. Chinse Bit Torrent sites are plentiful, each filled with local, Taiwanese, Hong Kongnese and overseas TV shows and movies. Some of my staff have multiple external hard drives filled with media downloaded from the Internet. Almost none have DVD players. Check out the waiting area on any flight to China: it will be filled with Chinese 'netizens, notebook computers open, playing videos downloaded from the 'net.

On the flipside, Apple could do a killer business with Video IPOD. The 'net kids are pre-disposed to downloading video media spend and more time on the 'net than they do watching TV. They would love to have a cool, portable device to view it. But its gotta cost less than US $300 to hit a critical mass.